The St. Louis Cardinals just might have their ace, Chris Carpenter, back on the hill by the time Spring Training rolls around. The injury riddled ace has been struggling recently with the nerves in his pitching shoulder, however a test performed yesterday showed that the nerve is healing at a "normal" rate and that the pitcher should be able to begin throwing sometime in January.
While that's good news for Cardinal fans like myself, it brings mixed feelings for the best fans in baseball. Obviously it would be great to have the former Cy Young award winner back on the mound but the test results also mean that GM John Mozeliak will likely depend on the injury plagued pitcher to be the ace of the staff. This despite the fact that Carpenter has started only 4 games and pitched 21 innings over the past two years combined.
The Cardinal rotation as it stands today consists of Carpenter, Wainwright, Lohse, Wellemeyer, and Pineiro. If healthy, that's a pretty potent 1-4 and would match up well with the division champion Cubs (assuming they don't land Peavy). However, if Carpenter is unable to perform for some reason (and with pitchers like Mulder, Clement, and Carpenter himself fresh in their minds, you'll have to forgive Cardinal fans for their skepticism with Carp's health) the Cardinals suddenly find themselves giving starts to AAA starters or long relievers.
Mozeliak, to his credit, has stated that he may still seek out another starting pitcher, but St. Louis fans have been down this road before. "Another starting pitcher" tends to mean an arm pulled off the scrap heap for Dave Duncan to try and work his magic on. Unfortunately, for every Jeff Suppan, Chris Carpenter, and Todd Wellemeyer, there's also a Kip Wells, Anthony Reyes, and Brett Tomko. Don't get me wrong, Duncan is a fantastic pitching coach, but when he only has so many miracles in his bag of tricks.
We've also been sold on positive medical reports before. In fact, every major injury the Cardinals have endured over the past few years seem to be shrouded in the same mystery and unfold in the following pattern:
- Injury Occurs
- Team assures fans that injury is minor
- Injury drags on
- Player undergoes further testing
- Team assures fans that player will be back soon and no free agent signing or major trade is necessary because getting said player back in the lineup will be like making a trade or signing a top free agent.
- Top free agents sign, top trade targets go elsewhere, or trade deadline passes
- Player comes back briefly (they may or may not actually appear in a game)
- Player goes down again
- Team finally admits that the injury is more major than initially reported and acts like it's a surprise to them
- Player misses the rest of the year
If I seem to be a bit skeptical, let me just throw a few names out there that fit this patter, just from the past couple of years.
Mark Mulder - Mulder was "close" to coming back more times than I can count, actually came back a few times, but never fully recouperated.
Chris Carpenter - here's a quick timeline of Carp's latest injury - injured April of 07, surgery for bone spurs in May, finally had Tommy John in July 07. Team said he'd be back at All Star break 08, return used as justification for not making trade at deadline, he starts 3 games, throws 1 inning of relief and is done for the season again.
Jason Isringhausen - pretty much sucked all of 06, and it was then revealed he had been playing on a bad hip for most of the season, and was shut down for the year mid September.
Chris Duncan - played poorly most of the year, placed on DL in July for pinched nerve in back, in August it's revealed he'll have to undergo surgery for a herniated disc in his neck, a procedure that could be career ending.
Rick Ankiel - Ankiel was injured in late July or early August. Fans were told it was an abdominal strain. In August LaRussa said he'd be back starting soon. In September Ankiel underwent surgery for a sports hernia. St. Louis broadcaster Bob Ramsey claimed Ankiel had a sports hernia in early August but said the team wouldn't disclose it until the Cards were out of the playoff race.
So, while the Cardinals brass might be celebrating the positive report they received from Carpenter's doctors, please excuse fans of the Missouri team if they make Carpenter show them some results before once again believing the medical reports they get from the Cardinals organization. While it may seem like Carpenter's positive test results are a good thing for the team, the odds are just as good that it's one more bill of goods being sold to fans to help team ownership justify not ponying up the cash to sign a front of the line free agent starter. And besides, the Cardinals wouldn't want to overspend this winter and limit what we can do at the trade deadline...
